Who will lift the 2027 ODI World Cup?
Every team's chances, from Elo ratings and 50,000 simulated tournaments in the published format. One model for every team: following a team changes what you see first, never the numbers.
On 14 Oct 2026, cricstat's model makes India the favourite at 23.3%, ahead of South Africa (19.6%) and New Zealand (17.5%).
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Our model, not a tip · it doesn't know squads, injuries or pitches yet · Afghanistan's results come from a reviewed list · Strengths & limits ↓
Who will win the 2027 Cricket World Cup?
Who is the favourite to win the 2027 Cricket World Cup?
On 14 Oct 2026, cricstat's model makes India the favourite with a 23.3% chance of winning the title, ahead of South Africa (19.6%) and New Zealand (17.5%). The numbers come from 50,000 simulated tournaments in the published format and change as teams play.
Can the hosts win?
South Africa, Zimbabwe and Namibia host the tournament. Home teams get a 75-point boost in cricstat Elo, measured from every ODI since 2002. Their title chances: South Africa 19.6% (2nd favourite), Zimbabwe 0.1% (11th favourite), Namibia 0% (17th favourite).
How are the chances calculated?
Every team gets a cricstat Elo rating (cricstat's own rating, not the ICC ranking) from every men's ODI since 2002. The 2027 tournament, Qualifier included, is then played 50,000 times with those ratings, home advantage, rain-offs at each host's usual rate and a year's worth of uncertainty; a team's chance is the share of runs it wins. The model was tested on 900 ODIs since 2019, each predicted before it was played.
How often is the forecast updated?
Daily, after the latest results arrive; it only moves when a team plays an ODI. Last update: 14 Oct 2026.
Every team's chances as text (20 teams, 14 Oct 2026)
| # | Team | Group | Semi-final | Final | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | India | A | 68.2% | 40.6% | 23.3% |
| 2 | South Africa | B | 61.6% | 35.3% | 19.6% |
| 3 | New Zealand | B | 58.5% | 32.8% | 17.5% |
| 4 | Australia | A | 46.3% | 22.3% | 10.7% |
| 5 | Pakistan | A | 41.2% | 19.1% | 8.7% |
| 6 | England | B | 33.2% | 14.7% | 6.3% |
| 7 | Afghanistan | A | 30.6% | 12.7% | 5.3% |
| 8 | Sri Lanka | B | 27.5% | 11.4% | 4.7% |
| 9 | Bangladesh | B | 16.6% | 6.1% | 2.3% |
| 10 | West Indies | Qualifier | 12.0% | 4.2% | 1.5% |
| 11 | Zimbabwe | A | 2.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 12 | Ireland | Qualifier | 1.2% | 0.3% | <0.1% |
| 13 | Scotland | Qualifier | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| 14 | United States of America | Qualifier | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0% |
| 15 | Netherlands | Qualifier | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0% |
| 16 | Nepal | Qualifier | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0% |
| 17 | Namibia | Qualifier | <0.1% | 0% | 0% |
| 18 | Oman | Qualifier | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0% |
| 19 | United Arab Emirates | Qualifier | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 20 | Canada | Qualifier | 0% | 0% | 0% |
A statistical estimate for fun and learning, not betting advice. How it works.